Back in 2018, it took just eight words to electrify the party's annual gathering demonstrating the party was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not precisely stirring rhetoric, the words met with rapturous applause as most of the hall rose in spontaneous acclamation.
When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.
In that deeply polarized period in 2018, straying from his agreed text in this way was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in key constituencies over the pro-European instincts of his party. With that single address, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for the party's base against the leadership he later succeeded.
The Shift in Position and Settled Issues
In the years since, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue had been settled by the previous year’s national vote. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge commitments that ruled out re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.
Like his predecessor, his strategy has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if survey data suggests a significant number have died or changed their minds.
A Lid That Rattles on Europe
However, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. While EU relations is no longer the boiling pot in UK politics, a lid that has been kept firmly shut for five years is beginning to rattle once more.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified the rhetoric regarding the damage caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick to criticize the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.
Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, dwarfs the minor adjustments so far offered by the government. The PM's much-touted relationship reset agreed with Brussels in 2024 offers economic benefits quantified in low decimal points.
Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals
The chancellor is one of those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to an expansive version designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme by which young people can travel between Britain and Europe for work or study.
The deputy prime minister muses openly about the clear advantages of being in an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, last week voted for an opposition proposal on joining one.
Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of EU policy, now present at all cabinet sessions, maintains the red lines are still in place, there are ways to work around them. One idea would be to announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the next manifesto, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.
The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Doubts
Yet, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again by warning rejoining an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the trade pacts with America, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.
Reportedly that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, stemming from three further factors.
- Firstly, he thinks a customs pact is now significantly more difficult because his ministers actively diverging from EU regulations in numerous sectors, including the environment.
- Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has led British officials that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals with Britain and are more focused on proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as grounds for the UK to keep its distance from Europe.
A Bizarre Strategy & Geopolitical Calculations
This strange and concerning document claims Europe faces “civilizational erasure” due to immigration. It includes a single mention to Britain, placed beside a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in British politics to foster the rise of nationalist movements.
But, far from concluding that this renders America an undependable ally, ministers reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Leadership Speculation & The Echo from the Past
This situation brings us back to 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt to become leader but merely an attempt to keep open the “option” of staying in the EU in a future vote. Indeed, back then, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he now appears to be opposing.
But it’s not been lost on Downing Street have noticed that the Health Secretary, widely considered would stand in any leadership election, is among a group of cabinet ministers signaling they desire greater ambition on Europe.
Staff for Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she refuses to comment on her stance on a customs union because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Obvious Risk & A Prudent Memory
The risk is clear. Should the PM reject significant moves towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters reside.
It would be wise for Starmer to remember the effect just a few words had on his career in 2018. There are options for a big offer on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should explore them personally, before someone else adopt them as their own.
