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Throughout the 2016 campaign for the US presidency, Viktor Orbán stood out as the exclusive European Union leader to back Donald Trump. This support was hardly surprising, considering the Hungarian leader's adoption of controversial notions such as the "great replacement" theory and the suppression of journalistic liberties. Analysts point out that Mr Orbán practically laid the groundwork for the Maga movement, with one-time strategist Steve Bannon hailing him as Trump's forerunner.

Campaign Assistance Before the Hungarian Vote

Recently, ahead of crucial Hungarian elections just half a year off, the US president returned some political favors. While Orbán aims for a fifth term in office governing a country he describes as an illiberal democracy, his Fidesz party currently trails in surveys. A meeting to the US capital resulted in more than Trump campaign souvenirs; it secured considerably more valuable campaign boosts.

Waivers and Financial Shields

Despite before admonishing European nations on the imperative to eliminate all fuel purchases from Russia, and warning of penalties against states continuing to purchase Russian crude, the US president approved to provide a unique waiver for Hungary – the top consumer among EU members of Russian petroleum. As Orbán stated, the Trump administration also promised to offer a economic protection to the Hungarian authorities should it faces any upcoming challenges, especially as EU institutions persists in holding back large sums from the EU to Hungary because of rule-of-law breaches.

The particulars of this agreement seem unclear. But Donald Trump has shown his inclination to support like-minded partners after the US extended a a $20 billion loan to Argentina’s far-right president, Javier Milei. Although the Hungarian PM was unable to arrange a Trump trip to Budapest to the Hungarian capital, the Washington talks still was a profitable day’s work.

Brussels' Worries and Geopolitical Stakes

In the corridors of the EU, Trump's actions probably emphasized the strategic importance of the upcoming vote, before which the moderate contender, Péter Magyar, enjoys a clear edge in the polls. European leaders are accustomed not to anticipate reliable policies from the US government, and accept the American leader's efforts to belittle the EU. However the special treatment for Orbán – obtained in exchange for an agreement to buy American natural gas and nuclear power – flagrantly undermines EU aspirations to eliminate Russian oil and gas by 2027.

• From 2022 onward, the two biggest EU importers of Russian crude, these two countries, have provided substantial funds to the Kremlin’s war effort.
• Meanwhile, the Hungarian government has often employed the threat of its veto to impede moves in Ukraine's bid to join the EU.
• While Europe works to forge a unified and effective strategy for aiding the Ukrainian government, and enhancing its leverage in any upcoming peace talks, the Hungarian leader's alignment with Moscow at the diplomatic table is still a key barrier.

Rival's Approach

Mr Magyar has refrained from promising a major policy shift on Ukraine, and focused his campaigning on internal matters, while highlighting the importance for the country to finally behave as a positive member state. Following so many years of trolling, Brussels can only wait and hope. Mr Orbán’s indifference to fundamental European principles, like the upholding of minority rights and the independence of civil society institutions, has long been a deeply troubling issue for the European Union. His ongoing blocking tactics toward Ukrainian matters threatens to weaken its long-term safety.